Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing27/38, 262 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kareem HuntRushing21 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving10 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing24/30, 209 YDS, 2 TD
- Alexander MattisonRushing14 CAR, 15 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:03DJ Turner 11 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)27–20
- Q44:59Xavier Worthy 9 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)27–13
- Q48:44Harrison Butker 24 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q36:40Daniel Carlson 32 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q20:04Harrison Butker 42 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q21:57Travis Kelce 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–10
- Q210:13Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q12:39Jakobi Meyers 7 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q110:02Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:02Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 LV · KC 77% → 88% +12KC 77% → 88%+12 pts
- Q12:39Jakobi Meyers 7 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Daniel Carlson Kick)KC 7 – 7 LV · LV 12% → 25% +13LV 12% → 25%+13 pts
- Q210:13Daniel Carlson 54 Yd Field GoalKC 7 – 10 LV · LV 27% → 35% +8LV 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q21:57Travis Kelce 5 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 10 LV · KC 62% → 82% +20KC 62% → 82%+20 pts
- Q48:44Harrison Butker 24 Yd Field GoalKC 20 – 13 LV · KC 83% → 93% +10KC 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- KC -8.5
- ML KC -425 / LV +320
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -11.5
- KC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- KC: Elo 84.1%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -351
- LV +351 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.5 – 17.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +30 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +289 Elo | KC 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 82.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 17.726th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.2 | Points allowed | 26.127th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.2 | Margin | −8.428th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 4.8027th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3314th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 LV in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.