Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing15/34, 154 YDS, 3 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing23 CAR, 92 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving10 REC, 93 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing14/23, 154 YDS, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing21 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyler JohnsonReceiving4 REC, 57 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:46Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal15–20
- Q414:52Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal12–20
- Q32:25Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal9–20
- Q37:30Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty PAT failed)6–20
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q21:14Kamren Curl 33 Yd Fumble Return (Joshua Karty Kick)3–14
- Q23:00Kyren Williams 13 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)3–7
- Q214:04Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:04Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 0 LAR · LV 30% → 38% +8LV 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q23:00Kyren Williams 13 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)LV 3 – 7 LAR · LAR 58% → 78% +21LAR 58% → 78%+21 pts
- Q21:14Kamren Curl 33 Yd Fumble Return (Joshua Karty Kick)LV 3 – 14 LAR · LAR 78% → 92% +14LAR 78% → 92%+14 pts
- Q37:30Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty PAT failed)LV 6 – 20 LAR · LAR 88% → 96% +8LAR 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q414:52Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field GoalLV 12 – 20 LAR · LV 5% → 10% +5LV 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -7.5
- ML LV +260 / LAR -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4
- LAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- LAR: Elo 63.4%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -265
- LV +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.0 – 25.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +8 | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +95 Elo | LAR 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 72.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 18.824th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.2 | Points allowed | 27.830th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−9.0 | Margin | −9.028th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.92 | Yards per play | 5.1419th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.38 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2332nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.