Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Justin FieldsPassing14/24, 145 YDS
- Najee HarrisRushing14 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving3 REC, 53 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing27/40, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing14 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- Brock BowersReceiving9 REC, 71 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:55Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field Goal32–13
- Q44:54Kristian Wilkerson 9 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–13
- Q48:16Justin Fields 7 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)29–7
- Q34:21Najee Harris 36 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)22–7
- Q39:20Chris Boswell 37 Yd Field Goal15–7
- Q20:34Justin Fields 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–7
- Q212:12Chris Boswell 49 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q14:24Alexander Mattison 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–7
- Q110:19Chris Boswell 52 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:24Alexander Mattison 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)PIT 3 – 7 LV · LV 32% → 51% +19LV 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q212:12Chris Boswell 49 Yd Field GoalPIT 6 – 7 LV · PIT 48% → 56% +9PIT 48% → 56%+9 pts
- Q20:34Justin Fields 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PIT 12 – 7 LV · PIT 55% → 74% +19PIT 55% → 74%+19 pts
- Q39:20Chris Boswell 37 Yd Field GoalPIT 15 – 7 LV · PIT 75% → 83% +8PIT 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q34:21Najee Harris 36 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 22 – 7 LV · PIT 85% → 97% +11PIT 85% → 97%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3.5
- ML PIT -170 / LV +145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -5
- PIT 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 67.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -157
- LV +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.0 – 16.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +38 | +10 | PIT: Justin Fields, usually Kenny Pickett · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +123 Elo | PIT 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 66.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.4 | Points scored | 19.220th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214.6 | Points allowed | 26.227th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+3.8 | Margin | −7.026th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 4.9821st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5220th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.