Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing19/33, 223 YDS, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving7 REC, 122 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/19, 280 YDS, 3 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing23 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 127 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:49Justin Tucker 37 Yd Field Goal10–41
- Q31:21Patrick Ricard 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–38
- Q39:36Derrick Henry 6 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)10–31
- Q20:16Zay Flowers 53 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)10–24
- Q20:54Wil Lutz 37 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q23:47Zay Flowers 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–17
- Q27:15Bo Nix 2 Yd pass from Courtland Sutton (Wil Lutz Kick)7–10
- Q212:04Justin Tucker 33 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q12:18Derrick Henry 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:18Derrick Henry 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)DEN 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 73% → 87% +14BAL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- Q27:15Bo Nix 2 Yd pass from Courtland Sutton (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 10 BAL · DEN 9% → 22% +13DEN 9% → 22%+13 pts
- Q23:47Zay Flowers 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)DEN 7 – 17 BAL · BAL 78% → 91% +13BAL 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q20:54Wil Lutz 37 Yd Field GoalDEN 10 – 17 BAL · DEN 8% → 13% +5DEN 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q20:16Zay Flowers 53 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)DEN 10 – 24 BAL · BAL 87% → 96% +9BAL 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -8.5
- ML DEN +300 / BAL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -5.5
- BAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 69.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -312
- DEN +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.0 – 27.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1644 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −31 | +5 | DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +143 Elo | BAL 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 70.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 75.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 30.32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215.0 | Points allowed | 26.126th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.6 | Margin | +4.112th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.02 | Yards per play | 7.111st of 32 |
| 1st of 324.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7625th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.