Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/22, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 140 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 62 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing21/36, 218 YDS
- J.K. DobbinsRushing6 CAR, 40 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving6 REC, 83 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:46Gus Edwards 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)30–23
- Q47:24Justice Hill 51 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)30–16
- Q412:32Mark Andrews 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–16
- Q34:08Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q39:29Justin Tucker 45 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)14–10
- Q27:48Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)7–10
- Q211:26Cameron Dicker 42 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:45Justin Herbert 5 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:45Justin Herbert 5 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)BAL 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 41% → 59% +18LAC 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q27:48Lamar Jackson 10 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 10 LAC · BAL 28% → 48% +21BAL 28% → 48%+21 pts
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 10 LAC · BAL 46% → 70% +24BAL 46% → 70%+24 pts
- Q34:08Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field GoalBAL 17 – 16 LAC · LAC 28% → 40% +12LAC 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q412:32Mark Andrews 6 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BAL 23 – 16 LAC · BAL 60% → 86% +26BAL 60% → 86%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML BAL -165 / LAC +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2.5
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- LAC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.5 – 24.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1659 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +11 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +58 Elo | BAL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.4 | Points scored | 22.018th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.6 | Points allowed | 14.51st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+5.7 | Margin | +7.54th of 32 |
| 1st of 327.01 | Yards per play | 5.4815th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2110th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.