Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/33, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing13 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving4 REC, 75 YDS
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing23/36, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing18 CAR, 63 YDS
- George PickensReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:06Zay Flowers 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Attempt Fails)16–18
- Q43:35Chris Boswell 50 Yd Field Goal10–18
- Q30:56Chris Boswell 27 Yd Field Goal10–15
- Q36:12Justin Tucker 54 Yd Field Goal10–12
- Q310:46Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field Goal7–12
- Q20:07Chris Boswell 32 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q21:16Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)7–6
- Q27:39Chris Boswell 52 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q110:40Chris Boswell 32 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:16Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 6 PIT · BAL 36% → 60% +24BAL 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q310:46Chris Boswell 57 Yd Field GoalBAL 7 – 12 PIT · PIT 52% → 63% +11PIT 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q36:12Justin Tucker 54 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 12 PIT · BAL 35% → 47% +12BAL 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q30:56Chris Boswell 27 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 15 PIT · PIT 55% → 69% +14PIT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q41:06Zay Flowers 16 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Attempt Fails)BAL 16 – 18 PIT · BAL <1% → 18% +18BAL <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3.5
- ML BAL -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.5 – 23.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1673 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +43 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +4 Elo | BAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3231.8 | Points scored | 23.912th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 16.22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.5 | Margin | +7.74th of 32 |
| 1st of 327.09 | Yards per play | 5.0621st of 32 |
| 27th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1310th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.