New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing24/39, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing12 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallReceiving6 REC, 103 YDS
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing16/29, 264 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing21 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- George PickensReceiving5 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:26Najee Harris 10 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)15–37
- Q412:09Van Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)15–30
- Q37:15Russell Wilson 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)15–23
- Q37:49Chris Boswell 21 Yd Field Goal15–16
- Q20:27George Pickens 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)15–13
- Q25:29Tyler Conklin 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Garrett Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)15–6
- Q28:20Chris Boswell 29 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q12:27Breece Hall 13 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–3
- Q111:33Chris Boswell 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:27Breece Hall 13 Yd Run (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 3 PIT · NYJ 47% → 67% +19NYJ 47% → 67%+19 pts
- Q25:29Tyler Conklin 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Garrett Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 15 – 6 PIT · NYJ 58% → 81% +22NYJ 58% → 81%+22 pts
- Q20:27George Pickens 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)NYJ 15 – 13 PIT · PIT 18% → 38% +20PIT 18% → 38%+20 pts
- Q37:15Russell Wilson 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)NYJ 15 – 23 PIT · PIT 50% → 77% +26PIT 50% → 77%+26 pts
- Q412:09Van Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)NYJ 15 – 30 PIT · PIT 85% → 98% +13PIT 85% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -2.5
- ML NYJ -155 / PIT +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 32%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -6.5
- NYJ 29%
- Ratings vs. market
- −29.9 pts
- NYJ: Elo 28.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 21.5 – 19.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +32 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +156 Elo | PIT 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 56.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.8 | Points scored | 20.722nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 14.32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +6.37th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.87 | Yards per play | 4.7626th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.046th of 32 |
| 16th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.