New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing24/38, 264 YDS, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 108 YDS
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing20/28, 278 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing19 CAR, 114 YDS
- George PickensReceiving4 REC, 74 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:06Greg Joseph 48 Yd Field Goal18–26
- Q47:15Chris Boswell 27 Yd Field Goal15–26
- Q411:07Tyrone Tracy Jr. 45 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–23
- Q413:16Calvin Austin III 29 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)9–23
- Q34:38Calvin Austin III 73 Yd Punt Return (Chris Boswell Kick)9–16
- Q20:21Greg Joseph 44 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q28:12Chris Boswell 27 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q212:39Greg Joseph 39 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q13:05Chris Boswell 25 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q15:19Greg Joseph 29 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:19Chris Boswell 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:39Greg Joseph 39 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 6 PIT · NYG 24% → 32% +8NYG 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q28:12Chris Boswell 27 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 9 PIT · PIT 67% → 75% +8PIT 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q20:21Greg Joseph 44 Yd Field GoalNYG 9 – 9 PIT · NYG 25% → 35% +9NYG 25% → 35%+9 pts
- Q34:38Calvin Austin III 73 Yd Punt Return (Chris Boswell Kick)NYG 9 – 16 PIT · PIT 63% → 86% +24PIT 63% → 86%+24 pts
- Q413:16Calvin Austin III 29 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)NYG 9 – 23 PIT · PIT 88% → 98% +10PIT 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -6.5
- ML NYG +220 / PIT -270
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -11
- PIT 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 83.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -247
- NYG +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 15.5 – 22.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | +40 | NYG: Daniel Jones · PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +275 Elo | PIT 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 80.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 71.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3214.1 | Points scored | 23.017th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 14.42nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.1 | Margin | +8.64th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.49 | Yards per play | 4.9824th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.44 | Yards allowed per play | 5.167th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.