Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing10/14, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing17 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing14/21, 99 YDS
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing6 CAR, 23 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving4 REC, 41 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:26Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)28–3
- Q37:03Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)21–3
- Q20:05Greg Joseph 38 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q24:27A.J. Brown 41 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–0
- Q28:58Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:58Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 NYG · PHI 59% → 78% +19PHI 59% → 78%+19 pts
- Q24:27A.J. Brown 41 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 0 NYG · PHI 79% → 92% +13PHI 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q20:05Greg Joseph 38 Yd Field GoalPHI 14 – 3 NYG · NYG 7% → 12% +5NYG 7% → 12%+5 pts
- Q37:03Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 3 NYG · PHI 91% → 98% +7PHI 91% → 98%+7 pts
- Q411:26Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 28 – 3 NYG · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -175 / NYG +150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -157
- NYG +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.0 – 19.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −2 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 16.029th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 20.29th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −4.223rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.61 | Yards per play | 4.8125th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4820th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 NYG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.