Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing14/28, 195 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 66 YDS
- George PickensReceiving5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing17/34, 202 YDS
- Austin EkelerRushing13 CAR, 44 YDS, 2 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving5 REC, 113 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:22Mike Williams 32 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)28–27
- Q32:51Zane Gonzalez 41 Yd Field Goal21–27
- Q38:06Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)21–24
- Q312:55Jeremy McNichols 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–24
- Q20:16Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–17
- Q28:11Zane Gonzalez 48 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q210:28Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)14–7
- Q13:44Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–7
- Q18:33George Pickens 16 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:28Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 14 – 7 WSH · PIT 47% → 68% +21PIT 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q20:16Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)PIT 14 – 17 WSH · WSH 39% → 63% +24WSH 39% → 63%+24 pts
- Q312:55Jeremy McNichols 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)PIT 14 – 24 WSH · WSH 63% → 84% +20WSH 63% → 84%+20 pts
- Q38:06Najee Harris 1 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 21 – 24 WSH · PIT 14% → 36% +22PIT 14% → 36%+22 pts
- Q42:22Mike Williams 32 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 28 – 27 WSH · PIT 3% → 62% +59PIT 3% → 62%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML PIT +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -1
- WSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 45.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -116
- PIT +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 22.0 – 23.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +45 | +37 | PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 29.23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214.9 | Points allowed | 21.011th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.5 | Margin | +8.24th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.20 | Yards per play | 6.243rd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6924th of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.