Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing10/24, 131 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing18 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing21/38, 326 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 65 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving5 REC, 125 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Noah Brown 52 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels15–18
- Q40:25Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Williams Pass to Cole Kmet for Two-Point Conversion)15–12
- Q30:43D'Andre Swift 56 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–12
- Q35:48Austin Seibert 47 Yd Field Goal0–12
- Q25:24Austin Seibert 28 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q11:04Austin Seibert 30 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:51Austin Seibert 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:04Austin Seibert 30 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 6 WSH · WSH 60% → 68% +8WSH 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q25:24Austin Seibert 28 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 9 WSH · WSH 70% → 78% +8WSH 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q30:43D'Andre Swift 56 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 12 WSH · CHI 7% → 26% +19CHI 7% → 26%+19 pts
- Q40:25Roschon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Caleb Williams Pass to Cole Kmet for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 15 – 12 WSH · CHI <1% → 99% +99CHI <1% → 99%+99 pts
- Q40:00Noah Brown 52 Yd pass from Jayden DanielsCHI 15 – 18 WSH · WSH 0% → 100% +100WSH 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -1.5
- ML CHI +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 22.5 – 24.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −30 | +23 | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.7 | Points scored | 31.12nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3216.8 | Points allowed | 21.714th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.8 | Margin | +9.43rd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.67 | Yards per play | 6.214th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8027th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.