Washington Commanders at New York Giants, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing15/22, 209 YDS, 2 TD
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 52 YDS
- Noah BrownReceiving5 REC, 60 YDS
Giants- Daniel JonesPassing20/26, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 66 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving9 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:48Theo Johnson 35 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–22
- Q43:46Austin Seibert 20 Yd Field Goal27–16
- Q49:25Daniel Jones 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–16
- Q30:33Austin Seibert 31 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q35:27Jude McAtamney 31 Yd Field Goal21–10
- Q20:06Terry McLaurin 18 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)21–7
- Q26:21Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)14–7
- Q212:21Chris Manhertz 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Jude McAtamney Kick)7–7
- Q17:04Terry McLaurin 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:04Terry McLaurin 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 7 – 0 NYG · WSH 64% → 79% +16WSH 64% → 79%+16 pts
- Q212:21Chris Manhertz 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Jude McAtamney Kick)WSH 7 – 7 NYG · NYG 20% → 38% +18NYG 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q26:21Austin Ekeler 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 14 – 7 NYG · WSH 61% → 80% +19WSH 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q20:06Terry McLaurin 18 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert Kick)WSH 21 – 7 NYG · WSH 81% → 93% +12WSH 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q49:25Daniel Jones 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)WSH 24 – 16 NYG · NYG <1% → 8% +7NYG <1% → 8%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -3.5
- ML WSH -200 / NYG +170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -5.5
- WSH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 68.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -183
- NYG +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 23.0 – 19.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | −3 | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · NYG: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +137 Elo | WSH 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 67.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.5 | Points scored | 14.631st of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 21.914th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.6 | Margin | −7.327th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.28 | Yards per play | 4.6729th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6122nd of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–1 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 NYG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.