Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing28/50, 356 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing22 CAR, 86 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving9 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing17/36, 297 YDS, 2 TD
- Justin HerbertRushing5 CAR, 65 YDS
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving6 REC, 123 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:18J.K. Dobbins 29 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–34
- Q412:21Ja'Marr Chase 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)27–27
- Q32:53Tee Higgins 42 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)20–27
- Q35:27Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)13–27
- Q310:29Cameron Dicker 53 Yd Field Goal6–27
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 19 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q24:35J.K. Dobbins 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)6–21
- Q211:02Quentin Johnston 26 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)6–14
- Q212:54Evan McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q13:34Will Dissly 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–7
- Q16:27Evan McPherson 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:34Will Dissly 29 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)CIN 3 – 7 LAC · LAC 43% → 63% +19LAC 43% → 63%+19 pts
- Q211:02Quentin Johnston 26 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)CIN 6 – 14 LAC · LAC 55% → 74% +20LAC 55% → 74%+20 pts
- Q32:53Tee Higgins 42 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 20 – 27 LAC · CIN 5% → 20% +15CIN 5% → 20%+15 pts
- Q412:21Ja'Marr Chase 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 27 – 27 LAC · CIN 16% → 49% +33CIN 16% → 49%+33 pts
- Q40:18J.K. Dobbins 29 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)CIN 27 – 34 LAC · LAC 50% → >99% +50LAC 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -0.5
- ML CIN -105 / LAC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 62.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -108
- CIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 24.0 – 24.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +11 | CIN: Joe Burrow · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +86 Elo | LAC 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.0 | Points scored | 20.721st of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.2 | Points allowed | 13.11st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +7.64th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.69 | Yards per play | 5.3117th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.129th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.