Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing16/20, 236 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing22 CAR, 108 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing26/37, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing12 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike GesickiReceiving7 REC, 73 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Jake Elliott 47 Yd Field Goal37–17
- Q44:39Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)34–17
- Q413:34Jake Elliott 49 Yd Field Goal27–17
- Q32:43DeVonta Smith 45 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–17
- Q34:16Chase Brown 4 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)17–17
- Q310:35Jalen Hurts 7 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–10
- Q20:22Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)10–10
- Q29:32Evan McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q214:10Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q14:56Ja'Marr Chase 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:56Ja'Marr Chase 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)PHI 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 57% → 75% +18CIN 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q20:22Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 10 CIN · PHI 22% → 45% +22PHI 22% → 45%+22 pts
- Q310:35Jalen Hurts 7 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 17 – 10 CIN · PHI 45% → 71% +26PHI 45% → 71%+26 pts
- Q34:16Chase Brown 4 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)PHI 17 – 17 CIN · CIN 25% → 54% +29CIN 25% → 54%+29 pts
- Q32:43DeVonta Smith 45 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 24 – 17 CIN · PHI 46% → 76% +30PHI 46% → 76%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -2.5
- ML PHI +130 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -1
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -136
- PHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 22.5 – 25.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +10 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 25.410th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+3.2 | Margin | +1.716th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.54 | Yards per play | 5.799th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.179th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.