Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Gardner Minshew IIPassing10/17, 124 YDS
- Alexander MattisonRushing9 CAR, 36 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving8 REC, 105 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing27/39, 251 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing27 CAR, 120 YDS
- Mike GesickiReceiving5 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:41Brock Bowers 22 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–41
- Q41:53Evan McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal17–41
- Q45:37Mike Gesicki 47 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)17–38
- Q413:17Jack Jones 29 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)17–31
- Q37:34Mike Gesicki 11 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)10–31
- Q311:27Drew Sample 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)10–24
- Q20:32Andrei Iosivas 10 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)10–17
- Q22:58Daniel Carlson 46 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q27:00Evan McPherson 44 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q11:39Chase Brown 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q19:36Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Zamir White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 CIN · LV 26% → 43% +17LV 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q11:39Chase Brown 1 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)LV 7 – 7 CIN · CIN 54% → 72% +19CIN 54% → 72%+19 pts
- Q22:58Daniel Carlson 46 Yd Field GoalLV 10 – 10 CIN · LV 23% → 31% +8LV 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q20:32Andrei Iosivas 10 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)LV 10 – 17 CIN · CIN 68% → 86% +18CIN 68% → 86%+18 pts
- Q311:27Drew Sample 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)LV 10 – 24 CIN · CIN 87% → 96% +10CIN 87% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -7.5
- ML LV +290 / CIN -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -5
- CIN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 67.6%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -300
- LV +300 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.5 – 26.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +32 | +9 | LV: Gardner Minshew II, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +128 Elo | CIN 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 70.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 75.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 24.411th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.3 | Points allowed | 25.423rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.3 | Margin | −1.019th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.71 | Yards per play | 5.6713th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3415th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.