New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew LockPassing22/39, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing7 CAR, 26 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving7 REC, 68 YDS
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing18/27, 202 YDS, 1 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 94 YDS, 2 TD
- Darnell MooneyReceiving5 REC, 82 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:47Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal7–34
- Q37:14Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–31
- Q314:20Matthew Judon 27 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)7–24
- Q21:43Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)7–17
- Q27:56Jessie Bates III 55 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)7–10
- Q210:36Riley Patterson 52 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q214:53Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:53Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 7 – 0 ATL · NYG 24% → 42% +18NYG 24% → 42%+18 pts
- Q210:36Riley Patterson 52 Yd Field GoalNYG 7 – 3 ATL · ATL 55% → 64% +9ATL 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q27:56Jessie Bates III 55 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)NYG 7 – 10 ATL · ATL 63% → 81% +18ATL 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q21:43Bijan Robinson 4 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)NYG 7 – 17 ATL · ATL 80% → 93% +12ATL 80% → 93%+12 pts
- Q314:20Matthew Judon 27 Yd Interception Return (Riley Patterson Kick)NYG 7 – 24 ATL · ATL 93% → 98% +5ATL 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML NYG +380 / ATL -550
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.3%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -382
- NYG +382 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 17.0 – 26.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1278 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | −83 | NYG: Drew Lock, usually Daniel Jones · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +102 Elo | ATL 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 79.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.9 | Points scored | 20.921st of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 24.425th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.6 | Margin | −3.523rd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.61 | Yards per play | 5.7510th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5118th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 0–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.