New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew LockPassing21/32, 178 YDS, 1 INT
- Drew LockRushing4 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik NabersReceiving8 REC, 69 YDS
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing21/36, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing22 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- KaVontae TurpinReceiving4 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:18Drew Lock 8 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)20–27
- Q413:34Graham Gano 47 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q34:23Rico Dowdle 4 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–27
- Q311:37Brandin Cooks 2 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–20
- Q23:21Graham Gano 46 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q211:29DeMarvion Overshown 23 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–13
- Q211:44Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q13:06Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)7–3
- Q19:43Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:06Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 7 – 3 DAL · NYG 28% → 47% +18NYG 28% → 47%+18 pts
- Q211:44Brandon Aubrey 33 Yd Field GoalNYG 7 – 6 DAL · DAL 51% → 60% +9DAL 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q211:29DeMarvion Overshown 23 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 7 – 13 DAL · DAL 60% → 79% +18DAL 60% → 79%+18 pts
- Q23:21Graham Gano 46 Yd Field GoalNYG 10 – 13 DAL · NYG 21% → 29% +8NYG 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q311:37Brandin Cooks 2 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 10 – 20 DAL · DAL 71% → 89% +18DAL 71% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML NYG +180 / DAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- NYG +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 17.5 – 22.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1312 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −18 | −109 | NYG: Drew Lock, usually Daniel Jones · DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +124 Elo | DAL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.8 | Points scored | 20.122nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 29.031st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.1 | Margin | −8.929th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.72 | Yards per play | 4.9726th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9330th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 0–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | — | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.