Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/34, 257 YDS, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing20 CAR, 109 YDS, 3 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving4 REC, 54 YDS
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing32/55, 354 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing10 CAR, 28 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving8 REC, 93 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:16Joe Mixon 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)34–10
- Q412:31Derek Barnett 28 Yd Fumble Return (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)27–10
- Q37:05Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q25:55Brandon Aubrey 53 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q29:10Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q214:51KaVontae Turpin 64 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–7
- Q10:49Joe Mixon 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)14–0
- Q112:42Joe Mixon 45 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:42Joe Mixon 45 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 7 – 0 DAL · HOU 74% → 86% +12HOU 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q10:49Joe Mixon 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 14 – 0 DAL · HOU 86% → 94% +8HOU 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q214:51KaVontae Turpin 64 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)HOU 14 – 7 DAL · DAL 6% → 14% +9DAL 6% → 14%+9 pts
- Q25:55Brandon Aubrey 53 Yd Field GoalHOU 17 – 10 DAL · DAL 9% → 14% +5DAL 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q37:05Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field GoalHOU 20 – 10 DAL · HOU 87% → 92% +6HOU 87% → 92%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML HOU -340 / DAL +270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -285
- DAL +285 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 24.5 – 17.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −142 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +174 Elo | HOU 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 74.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 19.722nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 28.831st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −9.128th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.10 | Yards per play | 4.9225th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8429th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 0–431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 1–8 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.