Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing14/20, 202 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing14 CAR, 66 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 109 YDS
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing13/23, 45 YDS
- Rico DowdleRushing12 CAR, 53 YDS
- Jake FergusonReceiving4 REC, 24 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:32Jake Elliott 38 Yd Field Goal34–6
- Q414:50Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal31–6
- Q32:56Jalen Hurts 8 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)28–6
- Q38:52Johnny Wilson 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)21–6
- Q20:23Dallas Goedert 14 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–6
- Q21:48Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q13:10Brandon Aubrey 46 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q17:05Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:05Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 DAL · PHI 71% → 85% +14PHI 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q13:10Brandon Aubrey 46 Yd Field GoalPHI 7 – 3 DAL · DAL 15% → 21% +6DAL 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q21:48Brandon Aubrey 23 Yd Field GoalPHI 7 – 6 DAL · DAL 22% → 30% +8DAL 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q20:23Dallas Goedert 14 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 6 DAL · PHI 69% → 87% +18PHI 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q38:52Johnny Wilson 5 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 6 DAL · PHI 88% → 97% +9PHI 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML PHI -290 / DAL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8.5
- PHI 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 77.6%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -259
- DAL +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 26.0 – 18.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −146 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +216 Elo | PHI 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 76.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 21.418th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 28.131st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.5 | Margin | −6.827th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.1721st of 32 |
| 6th of 325.02 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9131st of 32 |
| 5th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.