Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing16/31, 169 YDS, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing3 CAR, 24 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving5 REC, 45 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/24, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing27 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:04Trevor Lawrence 4 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)23–28
- Q47:43DeVonta Smith 25 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q35:12Travon Walker 35 Yd Fumble Return (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Evan Engram for Two-Point Conversion)16–22
- Q35:26Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Run (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Brian Thomas Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)8–22
- Q39:25Jalen Hurts 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–22
- Q20:22Saquon Barkley 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–16
- Q29:20Jake Elliott 43 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:22Saquon Barkley 20 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:22Saquon Barkley 20 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)JAX 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 71% → 85% +13PHI 71% → 85%+13 pts
- Q20:22Saquon Barkley 19 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)JAX 0 – 16 PHI · PHI 90% → 97% +6PHI 90% → 97%+6 pts
- Q35:12Travon Walker 35 Yd Fumble Return (Trevor Lawrence Pass to Evan Engram for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 16 – 22 PHI · JAX 3% → 16% +13JAX 3% → 16%+13 pts
- Q47:43DeVonta Smith 25 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)JAX 16 – 28 PHI · PHI 90% → 99% +9PHI 90% → 99%+9 pts
- Q44:04Trevor Lawrence 4 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)JAX 23 – 28 PHI · JAX <1% → 9% +9JAX <1% → 9%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML JAX +240 / PHI -290
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7.5
- PHI 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 74.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -256
- JAX +256 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 19.5 – 27.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +188 Elo | PHI 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 73.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 71.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.5 | Points scored | 24.412th of 32 |
| 30th of 3228.0 | Points allowed | 18.96th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−6.5 | Margin | +5.611th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.77 | Yards per play | 5.7012th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.127th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.