Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing14/22, 196 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing25 CAR, 127 YDS, 2 TD
- Tucker KraftReceiving3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing21/32, 308 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing18 CAR, 78 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving3 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field Goal30–27
- Q41:48Evan Engram 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)27–27
- Q45:36Cam Little 47 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q414:06Tucker Kraft 3 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brandon McManus Kick)27–17
- Q30:21Josh Jacobs 38 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)20–17
- Q35:10Brian Thomas Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)13–17
- Q20:03Cam Little 39 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:54Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q22:37Trevor Lawrence 6 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)10–7
- Q26:03Brandon McManus 31 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q211:31Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:10Brian Thomas Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)GB 13 – 17 JAX · JAX 30% → 59% +29JAX 30% → 59%+29 pts
- Q30:21Josh Jacobs 38 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 20 – 17 JAX · GB 37% → 71% +33GB 37% → 71%+33 pts
- Q414:06Tucker Kraft 3 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 27 – 17 JAX · GB 71% → 93% +22GB 71% → 93%+22 pts
- Q41:48Evan Engram 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)GB 27 – 27 JAX · JAX <1% → 48% +47JAX <1% → 48%+47 pts
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field GoalGB 30 – 27 JAX · GB 55% → 100% +45GB 55% → 100%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML GB -185 / JAX +155
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -6.5
- GB 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.6 pts
- GB: Elo 71.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -171
- JAX +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 26.5 – 23.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1620 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +3 | GB: Jordan Love · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +163 Elo | GB 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 68.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 63.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.6 | Points scored | 20.721st of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 27.730th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+6.1 | Margin | −7.025th of 32 |
| 6th of 326.07 | Yards per play | 5.6014th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.15 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9629th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.