Detroit Lions at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing15/30, 240 YDS, 2 TD, 5 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing19 CAR, 71 YDS
- Sam LaPortaReceiving3 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing19/33, 232 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Joe MixonRushing25 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- John Metchie IIIReceiving5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Bates 52 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q45:01Jake Bates 58 Yd Field Goal23–23
- Q411:38Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)20–23
- Q311:34David Montgomery 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)13–23
- Q20:12John Metchie III 15 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–23
- Q24:07Ka'imi Fairbairn 29 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q28:25Ka'imi Fairbairn 56 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q210:52Sam LaPorta 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–10
- Q12:09Ka'imi Fairbairn 34 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q17:46Joe Mixon 8 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:46Joe Mixon 8 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)DET 0 – 7 HOU · HOU 34% → 52% +18HOU 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q210:52Sam LaPorta 20 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 10 HOU · DET 35% → 56% +21DET 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q411:38Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 20 – 23 HOU · DET 11% → 41% +30DET 11% → 41%+30 pts
- Q45:01Jake Bates 58 Yd Field GoalDET 23 – 23 HOU · DET 30% → 55% +25DET 30% → 55%+25 pts
- Q40:00Jake Bates 52 Yd Field GoalDET 26 – 23 HOU · DET 57% → 100% +43DET 57% → 100%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -230 / HOU +195
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 68.7%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -207
- HOU +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 27.0 – 22.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1713 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +8 | DET: Jared Goff · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +136 Elo | DET 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.3 | Points scored | 22.317th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.5 | Points allowed | 22.216th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+13.8 | Margin | +0.118th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.08 | Yards per play | 5.2419th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 4.854th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.