Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing18/22, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving7 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing23/39, 273 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing13 CAR, 95 YDS
- Jayden ReedReceiving5 REC, 113 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:49Emanuel Wilson 2 Yd Run (Jordan Love Pass to Christian Watson for Two-Point Conversion)24–14
- Q30:48Brandon McManus 38 Yd Field Goal24–6
- Q39:32Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)24–3
- Q20:32Kerby Joseph 27 Yd Interception Return (Jake Bates Kick)17–3
- Q20:58Jake Bates 27 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q214:56Amon-Ra St. Brown 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–3
- Q17:06Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:06Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 3 GB · GB 43% → 51% +8GB 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q214:56Amon-Ra St. Brown 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 3 GB · DET 48% → 68% +20DET 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q20:58Jake Bates 27 Yd Field GoalDET 10 – 3 GB · DET 69% → 77% +9DET 69% → 77%+9 pts
- Q20:32Kerby Joseph 27 Yd Interception Return (Jake Bates Kick)DET 17 – 3 GB · DET 77% → 91% +14DET 77% → 91%+14 pts
- Q39:32Jahmyr Gibbs 15 Yd Run (Jake Bates Kick)DET 24 – 3 GB · DET 93% → 99% +5DET 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -150 / GB +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- DET: Elo 51.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- GB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 25.5 – 23.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1684 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +8 | DET: Jared Goff · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3233.4 | Points scored | 27.06th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 21.312th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+14.3 | Margin | +5.89th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.26 | Yards per play | 6.105th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3615th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–1 GB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.