Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing10/32, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing20 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing25/37, 285 YDS, 1 TD
- Joe MixonRushing25 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Stefon DiggsReceiving5 REC, 81 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)20–23
- Q412:21Ka'imi Fairbairn 34 Yd Field Goal13–23
- Q32:01Matt Gay 37 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q37:52Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal10–20
- Q20:17Tank Dell 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–17
- Q210:04Joe Mixon 14 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–10
- Q10:50Josh Downs 69 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)10–3
- Q110:00Matt Gay 46 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:15Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00Matt Gay 46 Yd Field GoalIND 3 – 3 HOU · IND 28% → 35% +7IND 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q10:50Josh Downs 69 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)IND 10 – 3 HOU · IND 37% → 56% +20IND 37% → 56%+20 pts
- Q210:04Joe Mixon 14 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)IND 10 – 10 HOU · HOU 41% → 63% +21HOU 41% → 63%+21 pts
- Q20:17Tank Dell 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)IND 10 – 17 HOU · HOU 61% → 82% +21HOU 61% → 82%+21 pts
- Q48:32Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)IND 20 – 23 HOU · IND 3% → 26% +22IND 3% → 26%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML IND +175 / HOU -210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -188
- IND +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.5 – 25.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −9 | +9 | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +123 Elo | HOU 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 22.717th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.917th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.62 | Yards per play | 5.3817th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.793rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.