Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tyler HuntleyPassing7/13, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing15 CAR, 77 YDS
- Jonnu SmithReceiving7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing10/24, 129 YDS
- Anthony Richardson Sr.Rushing14 CAR, 56 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving3 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:51Matt Gay 38 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q48:41Matt Gay 22 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q39:08Tyler Goodson 7 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)10–10
- Q20:00Matt Gay 52 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q20:22Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q15:56Jonnu Smith 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:56Jonnu Smith 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 0 IND · MIA 42% → 61% +19MIA 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q20:00Matt Gay 52 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 3 IND · IND 23% → 32% +9IND 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q39:08Tyler Goodson 7 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)MIA 10 – 10 IND · IND 29% → 56% +27IND 29% → 56%+27 pts
- Q48:41Matt Gay 22 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 13 IND · IND 53% → 72% +19IND 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q41:51Matt Gay 38 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 16 IND · IND 87% → 99% +12IND 87% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML MIA +130 / IND -150
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- IND: Elo 67.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -142
- MIA +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 20.0 – 23.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −101 | −14 | MIA: Tyler Huntley, usually Tua Tagovailoa · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +127 Elo | IND 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 63.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 58.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3212.0 | Points scored | 23.216th of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 23.218th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.65 | Yards per play | 5.799th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7426th of 32 |
| 15th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.