Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Cooper RushPassing24/32, 247 YDS, 2 TD
- Rico DowdleRushing19 CAR, 86 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving10 REC, 67 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing25/38, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Jayden DanielsRushing7 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:14Juanyeh Thomas 43 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)34–26
- Q40:21Terry McLaurin 86 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert PAT Failed)27–26
- Q41:40Austin Seibert 51 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q42:49KaVontae Turpin 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–17
- Q43:02Zach Ertz 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jayden Daniels Run for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q45:16Luke Schoonmaker 22 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)20–9
- Q48:11Brandon Aubrey 48 Yd Field Goal13–9
- Q34:40Jalen Tolbert 6 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–9
- Q39:53Jayden Daniels 17 Yd Rush (Austin Seibert PAT Failed)3–9
- Q20:03Brandon Aubrey 46 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:01Austin Seibert 41 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:40Jalen Tolbert 6 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 9 WSH · DAL 12% → 34% +22DAL 12% → 34%+22 pts
- Q45:16Luke Schoonmaker 22 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 20 – 9 WSH · DAL 72% → 98% +26DAL 72% → 98%+26 pts
- Q43:02Zach Ertz 4 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jayden Daniels Run for Two-Point Conversion)DAL 20 – 17 WSH · WSH <1% → 26% +26WSH <1% → 26%+26 pts
- Q42:49KaVontae Turpin 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 27 – 17 WSH · DAL 75% → >99% +25DAL 75% → >99%+25 pts
- Q40:21Terry McLaurin 86 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Austin Seibert PAT Failed)DAL 27 – 26 WSH · WSH <1% → 23% +23WSH <1% → 23%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Commanders 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -10.5
- ML DAL +425 / WSH -650
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -10
- WSH 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 81.1%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -453
- DAL +453 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 17.0 – 27.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −127 | +31 | DAL: Cooper Rush, usually Dak Prescott · WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +253 Elo | WSH 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 79.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 81.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.7 | Points scored | 28.04th of 32 |
| 31st of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 22.114th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.6 | Margin | +5.97th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.92 | Yards per play | 5.876th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.91 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5720th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–7 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.