Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing22/32, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Austin EkelerReceiving8 REC, 89 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing18/28, 221 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing26 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 65 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:28Zach Ertz 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Jayden Daniels Pass to Zach Ertz for Two-Point Conversion)18–26
- Q44:38Saquon Barkley 39 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–26
- Q44:58Saquon Barkley 23 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–19
- Q412:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)10–12
- Q35:32Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q311:03Zane Gonzalez 45 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q20:19Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q13:26Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:26Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 7 – 0 PHI · WSH 35% → 54% +19WSH 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q311:03Zane Gonzalez 45 Yd Field GoalWSH 10 – 3 PHI · WSH 54% → 65% +11WSH 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q35:32Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field GoalWSH 10 – 6 PHI · PHI 31% → 43% +12PHI 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q412:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)WSH 10 – 12 PHI · PHI 35% → 68% +33PHI 35% → 68%+33 pts
- Q44:58Saquon Barkley 23 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 10 – 19 PHI · PHI 71% → 98% +27PHI 71% → 98%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML WSH +190 / PHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3.5
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -198
- WSH +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.5 – 27.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | — | WSH: Jayden Daniels, usually Sam Howell · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +83 Elo | PHI 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.0 | Points scored | 25.97th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.7 | Points allowed | 17.95th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+7.3 | Margin | +8.03rd of 32 |
| 4th of 326.04 | Yards per play | 5.7110th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.762nd of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.