Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing24/30, 294 YDS
- Bucky IrvingRushing12 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing21/31, 189 YDS
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 42 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving6 REC, 64 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:28Devin Singletary 1 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)30–7
- Q33:45Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)30–0
- Q20:12Baker Mayfield 10 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin PAT Failed)23–0
- Q26:23Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–0
- Q212:03Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q16:37Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:37Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 0 NYG · TB 68% → 83% +15TB 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q212:03Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field GoalTB 10 – 0 NYG · TB 83% → 88% +5TB 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q26:23Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 0 NYG · TB 88% → 96% +8TB 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q20:12Baker Mayfield 10 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin PAT Failed)TB 23 – 0 NYG · TB 97% → >99% +2TB 97% → >99%+2 pts
- Q33:45Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 30 – 0 NYG · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -6.5
- ML TB -260 / NYG +215
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -4
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TB: Elo 64.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -224
- NYG +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 23.5 – 17.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1339 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −8 | TB: Baker Mayfield · NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +102 Elo | TB 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.9 | Points scored | 15.632nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 22.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −6.626th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.82 | Yards per play | 4.7528th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.86 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6225th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 0–531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.