San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing25/36, 353 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing13 CAR, 39 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving7 REC, 93 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/29, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Rachaad WhiteReceiving6 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jake Moody 44 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q40:41Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q47:02George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)20–17
- Q414:18Bucky Irving 12 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–17
- Q34:21Jake Moody 33 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q311:58Rachaad White 9 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–10
- Q21:14Chase McLaughlin 30 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q28:53Jake Moody 28 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q14:15Ricky Pearsall 46 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:58Rachaad White 9 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)SF 10 – 10 TB · TB 15% → 35% +20TB 15% → 35%+20 pts
- Q414:18Bucky Irving 12 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)SF 13 – 17 TB · TB 25% → 59% +34TB 25% → 59%+34 pts
- Q47:02George Kittle 11 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 20 – 17 TB · SF 29% → 77% +48SF 29% → 77%+48 pts
- Q40:41Chase McLaughlin 26 Yd Field GoalSF 20 – 20 TB · TB 3% → 48% +44TB 3% → 48%+44 pts
- Q40:00Jake Moody 44 Yd Field GoalSF 23 – 20 TB · SF 59% → 100% +41SF 59% → 100%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SF -6.5
- ML SF -300 / TB +250
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -3
- SF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- SF: Elo 60.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -252
- TB +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 28.5 – 22.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | SF: Brock Purdy · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +77 Elo | SF 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 71.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 28.85th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 27.028th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.5 | Margin | +1.814th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.52 | Yards per play | 6.046th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7727th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.