New Orleans Saints at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing20/31, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing17 CAR, 44 YDS
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Giants- Drew LockPassing21/49, 227 YDS, 1 INT
- Drew LockRushing5 CAR, 59 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving5 REC, 79 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:11Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Drew Lock Pass to Malik Nabers for Two-Point Conversion)14–11
- Q33:40Juwan Johnson 11 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–3
- Q211:20Graham Gano 43 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q11:19Kendre Miller 8 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:19Kendre Miller 8 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 0 NYG · NO 68% → 83% +15NO 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q211:20Graham Gano 43 Yd Field GoalNO 7 – 3 NYG · NYG 16% → 23% +6NYG 16% → 23%+6 pts
- Q33:40Juwan Johnson 11 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 3 NYG · NO 77% → 94% +16NO 77% → 94%+16 pts
- Q44:11Tyrone Tracy Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Drew Lock Pass to Malik Nabers for Two-Point Conversion)NO 14 – 11 NYG · NYG <1% → 20% +19NYG <1% → 20%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NO -5.5
- ML NO -275 / NYG +225
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -6
- NO 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NO: Elo 70.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -238
- NYG +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 23.5 – 18.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1296 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | −16 | NO: Derek Carr · NYG: Drew Lock, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +152 Elo | NO 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 68.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 70.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 15.332nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 23.318th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −8.028th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.56 | Yards per play | 4.6831st of 32 |
| 31st of 326.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6724th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 0–632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–0 NYG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.