Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing30/46, 395 YDS, 2 TD
- Nick ChubbRushing11 CAR, 50 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving6 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Derek CarrPassing21/27, 248 YDS, 2 TD
- Taysom HillRushing7 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingReceiving2 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:26Taysom Hill 75 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)14–35
- Q46:04Juwan Johnson 1 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–28
- Q413:22Taysom Hill 33 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)14–21
- Q38:49Elijah Moore 30 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to David Njoku for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q212:40Marquez Valdes-Scantling 71 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)6–14
- Q11:52Jerry Jeudy 89 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (pass failed)6–7
- Q19:54Taysom Hill 10 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Taysom Hill 10 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)CLE 0 – 7 NO · NO 49% → 66% +18NO 49% → 66%+18 pts
- Q11:52Jerry Jeudy 89 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (pass failed)CLE 6 – 7 NO · CLE 32% → 48% +16CLE 32% → 48%+16 pts
- Q212:40Marquez Valdes-Scantling 71 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CLE 6 – 14 NO · NO 52% → 71% +20NO 52% → 71%+20 pts
- Q38:49Elijah Moore 30 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to David Njoku for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 14 – 14 NO · CLE 22% → 51% +29CLE 22% → 51%+29 pts
- Q413:22Taysom Hill 33 Yd Rush (Blake Grupe Kick)CLE 14 – 21 NO · NO 49% → 82% +33NO 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML CLE -125 / NO +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 33%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- CLE 31%
- Ratings vs. market
- −22.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 31.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- NO +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 22.5 – 21.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −16 | +17 | CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +139 Elo | NO 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 67.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.4 | Points scored | 22.716th of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.7 | Points allowed | 24.624th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.2 | Margin | −1.921st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.22 | Yards per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0332nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.