Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing14/24, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Derek CarrPassing24/37, 184 YDS, 1 TD
- Alvin KamaraRushing23 CAR, 112 YDS
- Taysom HillReceiving5 REC, 37 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:54Puka Nacua 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)21–14
- Q411:53Marquez Valdes-Scantling 28 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Derek Carr Pass to Dante Pettis for Two-Point Conversion)14–14
- Q414:57Demarcus Robinson 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–6
- Q38:50Kyren Williams 4 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)7–6
- Q20:02Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:48Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:02Blake Grupe 54 Yd Field GoalLAR 0 – 6 NO · NO 55% → 65% +10NO 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q38:50Kyren Williams 4 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 7 – 6 NO · LAR 32% → 59% +27LAR 32% → 59%+27 pts
- Q414:57Demarcus Robinson 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 14 – 6 NO · LAR 59% → 87% +28LAR 59% → 87%+28 pts
- Q411:53Marquez Valdes-Scantling 28 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Derek Carr Pass to Dante Pettis for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 14 – 14 NO · NO 11% → 47% +35NO 11% → 47%+35 pts
- Q48:54Puka Nacua 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 21 – 14 NO · LAR 53% → 89% +36LAR 53% → 89%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -2.5
- ML LAR -155 / NO +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- LAR 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 42.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAR -136
- NO +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 25.5 – 23.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +17 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +53 Elo | NO 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 57.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.2 | Points scored | 23.812th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.1 | Points allowed | 23.620th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.9 | Margin | +0.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.38 | Yards per play | 5.6413th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.76 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0631st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.