Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing20/28, 207 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing12 CAR, 37 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving3 REC, 57 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing32/46, 293 YDS, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 62 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:39Joshua Karty 31 Yd Field Goal23–15
- Q42:38Jason Sanders 50 Yd Field Goal23–12
- Q46:31Joshua Karty 22 Yd Field Goal20–12
- Q49:07Jason Sanders 37 Yd Field Goal20–9
- Q414:55Joshua Karty 53 Yd Field Goal17–9
- Q35:32Tyreek Hill 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)17–6
- Q20:00Joshua Karty 55 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q25:46Joshua Karty 34 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q214:07Jason Sanders 50 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:01Malik Washington 18 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:01Malik Washington 18 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 7 – 0 LAR · MIA 44% → 62% +18MIA 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q25:46Joshua Karty 34 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 3 LAR · LAR 24% → 33% +8LAR 24% → 33%+8 pts
- Q20:00Joshua Karty 55 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 6 LAR · LAR 30% → 40% +10LAR 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q35:32Tyreek Hill 1 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 17 – 6 LAR · MIA 63% → 86% +23MIA 63% → 86%+23 pts
- Q414:55Joshua Karty 53 Yd Field GoalMIA 17 – 9 LAR · LAR 9% → 18% +8LAR 9% → 18%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -2.5
- ML MIA +115 / LAR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4.5
- LAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.6 pts
- LAR: Elo 64.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -127
- MIA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 24.0 – 26.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +7 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +107 Elo | LAR 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 61.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 56.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.5 | Points scored | 21.318th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 24.322nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.9 | Margin | −3.022nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.03 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.