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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast

FinalPrime Video

Away

Vikings

5-2

20–30

at

Home

Rams

3-4

MIN 59%LAR 41%

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SoFi Stadium · Prime Video

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.

LAR favored MIN favored9 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4LAR50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Vikings
Rams

Scoring summary

  • Q41:36Sam Darnold sacked in end zone by Byron Young for a Safety20–30
  • Q46:17Demarcus Robinson 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–28
  • Q412:47Will Reichard 35 Yd Field Goal20–21
  • Q32:36Demarcus Robinson 25 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)17–21
  • Q36:22Will Reichard 23 Yd Field Goal17–14
  • Q210:05Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–14
  • Q10:53Trent Sherfield Sr. 10 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)14–7
  • Q16:38Kyren Williams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)7–7
  • Q110:43Josh Oliver 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q16:38Kyren Williams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 7 – 7 LAR · LAR 25% → 42% +17
  2. Q10:53Trent Sherfield Sr. 10 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 7 LAR · MIN 57% → 76% +18
  3. Q210:05Cooper Kupp 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 14 – 14 LAR · LAR 24% → 43% +19
  4. Q32:36Demarcus Robinson 25 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 17 – 21 LAR · LAR 32% → 64% +32
  5. Q46:17Demarcus Robinson 10 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 20 – 28 LAR · LAR 55% → 93% +38

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Vikings 59%

LeanMiss
MIN 59%LAR 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.

Market
MIN -2.5
ML MIN -150 / LAR +130
Pre-line forecast
MIN 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN -4.5
MIN 65%
Ratings vs. market
+7.1 pts
MIN: Elo 65.1%, market 58.0%
Fair odds
MIN -141
LAR +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 24.5 – 22.0 LAR
Posted spread, posted total 46.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINLARWhy
Team rating16281457Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks−19+7MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIN +108 EloMIN 65.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 62.5%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 58.5%93% market, 8% Elo

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatLAR
6th of 3228.0Points scored19.023rd of 32
6th of 3217.8Points allowed25.725th of 32
2nd of 32+10.2Margin−6.724th of 32
10th of 325.76Yards per play5.1220th of 32
6th of 325.12Yards allowed per play5.8327th of 32
1st of 322–0Road vs home2–18th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

VikingsRams
145015001550160016501700league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.