Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing25/28, 231 YDS, 2 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing12 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving4 REC, 80 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing25/39, 235 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing10 CAR, 44 YDS
- Ray DavisReceiving2 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:05Tyler Bass 61 Yd Field Goal27–30
- Q41:38Jaylen Waddle 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)27–27
- Q46:18Quintin Morris 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)20–27
- Q412:14De'Von Achane 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)20–20
- Q32:07Ray Davis 63 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)13–20
- Q32:59Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal13–12
- Q37:20Mack Hollins 1 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass PAT failed)10–12
- Q20:07Tyler Bass 49 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q23:20De'Von Achane 14 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–3
- Q11:19Jason Sanders 39 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q16:30Tyler Bass 40 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:07Ray Davis 63 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Josh Allen Pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)MIA 13 – 20 BUF · BUF 57% → 87% +30BUF 57% → 87%+30 pts
- Q412:14De'Von Achane 8 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 20 – 20 BUF · MIA 11% → 40% +29MIA 11% → 40%+29 pts
- Q46:18Quintin Morris 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)MIA 20 – 27 BUF · BUF 57% → 94% +37BUF 57% → 94%+37 pts
- Q41:38Jaylen Waddle 7 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 27 – 27 BUF · MIA <1% → 46% +46MIA <1% → 46%+46 pts
- Q40:05Tyler Bass 61 Yd Field GoalMIA 27 – 30 BUF · BUF 51% → >99% +49BUF 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -6.5
- ML MIA +220 / BUF -270
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -9
- BUF 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 78.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -241
- MIA +241 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 21.5 – 28.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +224 Elo | BUF 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 75.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 70.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3213.9 | Points scored | 28.85th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 18.36th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.6 | Margin | +10.52nd of 32 |
| 25th of 324.87 | Yards per play | 5.839th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2912th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–3 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.