Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing26/36, 307 YDS, 2 TD
- James ConnerRushing20 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving9 REC, 124 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing28/38, 234 YDS, 1 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing10 CAR, 97 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal28–27
- Q48:47James Conner 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)25–27
- Q412:22Raheem Mostert 6 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)18–27
- Q32:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)18–20
- Q36:15Team Safety12–20
- Q38:31De'Von Achane 12 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–20
- Q311:43Chad Ryland 57 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q20:15Jason Sanders 25 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q211:28Michael Wilson 6 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)7–10
- Q11:16Jason Sanders 53 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:15Raheem Mostert 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:31De'Von Achane 12 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)ARI 10 – 20 MIA · MIA 71% → 90% +18MIA 71% → 90%+18 pts
- Q32:08Marvin Harrison Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (James Conner Run for Two-Point Conversion)ARI 18 – 20 MIA · ARI 12% → 32% +20ARI 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q412:22Raheem Mostert 6 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)ARI 18 – 27 MIA · MIA 68% → 92% +24MIA 68% → 92%+24 pts
- Q48:47James Conner 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 25 – 27 MIA · ARI 5% → 31% +26ARI 5% → 31%+26 pts
- Q40:00Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field GoalARI 28 – 27 MIA · ARI 0% → 100% +100ARI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML ARI +190 / MIA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -197
- ARI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 21.0 – 25.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +22 | ARI: Kyler Murray · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +77 Elo | MIA 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 66.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 11.732nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.4 | Points allowed | 21.514th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−4.0 | Margin | −9.830th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 4.7027th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.96 | Yards allowed per play | 5.146th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.