Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing24/34, 283 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 111 YDS, 2 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving9 REC, 107 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing21/29, 212 YDS, 1 INT
- Geno SmithRushing5 CAR, 16 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving6 REC, 69 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:02Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)31–10
- Q411:19James Cook 7 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)31–3
- Q31:57James Cook 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)24–3
- Q38:31Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q20:18Dalton Kincaid 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–3
- Q28:14Jason Myers 38 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q14:51Keon Coleman 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:51Keon Coleman 2 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 0 SEA · BUF 60% → 77% +17BUF 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q28:14Jason Myers 38 Yd Field GoalBUF 7 – 3 SEA · SEA 22% → 30% +8SEA 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q20:18Dalton Kincaid 12 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 14 – 3 SEA · BUF 71% → 88% +17BUF 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q38:31Tyler Bass 27 Yd Field GoalBUF 17 – 3 SEA · BUF 90% → 94% +4BUF 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q31:57James Cook 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 24 – 3 SEA · BUF 96% → >99% +3BUF 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3.5
- ML BUF -170 / SEA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -3.5
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -155
- SEA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 24.5 – 21.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +6 | BUF: Josh Allen · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +85 Elo | BUF 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 60.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.4 | Points scored | 25.78th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 23.419th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+9.0 | Margin | +2.315th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.72 | Yards per play | 5.7212th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4218th of 32 |
| 15th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.