Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/44, 298 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing22 CAR, 69 YDS
- Cooper KuppReceiving11 REC, 104 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing21/34, 363 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing25 CAR, 83 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving7 REC, 180 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- OT4:57Demarcus Robinson 39 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford26–20
- Q40:51Jaxon Smith-Njigba 14 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)20–20
- Q410:59Kamren Kinchens 103 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)20–13
- Q30:27Joshua Karty 21 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q38:28Demarcus Robinson 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)10–13
- Q20:05Jaxon Smith-Njigba 24 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)3–13
- Q20:51Tyler Lockett 30 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers PAT blocked)3–6
- Q23:31Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:05Jaxon Smith-Njigba 24 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 3 – 13 SEA · SEA 58% → 80% +21SEA 58% → 80%+21 pts
- Q38:28Demarcus Robinson 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 10 – 13 SEA · LAR 17% → 40% +23LAR 17% → 40%+23 pts
- Q410:59Kamren Kinchens 103 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 20 – 13 SEA · LAR 51% → 86% +34LAR 51% → 86%+34 pts
- Q40:51Jaxon Smith-Njigba 14 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 20 – 20 SEA · SEA <1% → 50% +50SEA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:57Demarcus Robinson 39 Yd pass from Matthew StaffordLAR 26 – 20 SEA · LAR 51% → 91% +40LAR 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -2
- ML LAR -125 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -0.5
- LAR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- LAR: Elo 49.0%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- LAR -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 25.3 – 23.3 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +6 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +7 Elo | SEA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 53.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.6 | Points scored | 23.813th of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 24.423rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.3 | Margin | −0.619th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.23 | Yards per play | 5.6412th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.79 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5620th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 2–0 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.