Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing18/27, 295 YDS, 4 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 86 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing29/39, 282 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing20 CAR, 73 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving5 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:54Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal28–22
- Q412:45Vederian Lowe 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (kick blocked)28–19
- Q33:30Colby Parkinson 19 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)28–13
- Q37:02Joey Slye 25 Yd Field Goal21–13
- Q314:10Cooper Kupp 69 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)21–10
- Q21:52Joey Slye 32 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q25:45Puka Nacua 12 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–7
- Q27:18Cooper Kupp 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)7–7
- Q15:05Kendrick Bourne 9 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:05Kendrick Bourne 9 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)LAR 0 – 7 NE · NE 38% → 57% +19NE 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q27:18Cooper Kupp 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 7 – 7 NE · LAR 39% → 61% +22LAR 39% → 61%+22 pts
- Q25:45Puka Nacua 12 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 14 – 7 NE · LAR 60% → 80% +19LAR 60% → 80%+19 pts
- Q314:10Cooper Kupp 69 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 21 – 10 NE · LAR 73% → 89% +17LAR 73% → 89%+17 pts
- Q33:30Colby Parkinson 19 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 28 – 13 NE · LAR 86% → 97% +11LAR 86% → 97%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -4.5
- ML LAR -195 / NE +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -3
- LAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAR: Elo 59.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAR -173
- NE +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.5 – 19.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +13 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +69 Elo | LAR 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 63.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3220.6 | Points scored | 16.031st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 22.012th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.6 | Margin | −6.024th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 4.5130th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.