New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing15/25, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing20 CAR, 74 YDS
- Austin HooperReceiving3 REC, 64 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing16/30, 120 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing16 CAR, 59 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving5 REC, 44 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:17Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal19–3
- Q47:30Joey Slye 25 Yd Field Goal16–3
- Q20:00Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q21:46Ja'Lynn Polk 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)10–3
- Q27:17Cairo Santos 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q16:19Joey Slye 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:19Joey Slye 30 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 0 CHI · NE 31% → 38% +7NE 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q27:17Cairo Santos 33 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 58% → 67% +9CHI 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q21:46Ja'Lynn Polk 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)NE 10 – 3 CHI · NE 34% → 58% +24NE 34% → 58%+24 pts
- Q20:00Joey Slye 37 Yd Field GoalNE 13 – 3 CHI · NE 59% → 69% +10NE 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q47:30Joey Slye 25 Yd Field GoalNE 16 – 3 CHI · NE 94% → 98% +4NE 94% → 98%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6.5
- ML NE +225 / CHI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -8
- CHI 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 75.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -243
- NE +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 15.5 – 22.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | −28 | NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones · CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +198 Elo | CHI 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 75.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 70.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3215.7 | Points scored | 21.519th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 18.55th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−8.4 | Margin | +3.012th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.41 | Yards per play | 4.5630th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3716th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.