Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing22/41, 217 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftRushing16 CAR, 51 YDS
- Rome OdunzeReceiving5 REC, 104 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing13/20, 154 YDS
- James ConnerRushing18 CAR, 107 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving3 REC, 35 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:54Team Safety9–29
- Q414:02Chad Ryland 55 Yd Field Goal9–27
- Q34:53Chad Ryland 29 Yd Field Goal9–24
- Q20:04Emari Demercado 53 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)9–21
- Q20:26Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q23:14Trey Benson 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)6–14
- Q29:10Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q211:51Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q10:46Trey McBride 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:46Trey McBride 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)CHI 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 52% → 71% +19ARI 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q29:10Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field GoalCHI 6 – 7 ARI · CHI 36% → 45% +9CHI 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q23:14Trey Benson 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)CHI 6 – 14 ARI · ARI 55% → 77% +21ARI 55% → 77%+21 pts
- Q20:26Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field GoalCHI 9 – 14 ARI · CHI 23% → 31% +9CHI 23% → 31%+9 pts
- Q20:04Emari Demercado 53 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)CHI 9 – 21 ARI · ARI 69% → 87% +18ARI 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -1.5
- ML CHI +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- ARI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 44.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -111
- CHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.5 – 23.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −28 | +31 | CHI: Caleb Williams, usually Justin Fields · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +38 Elo | CHI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 22.318th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3217.0 | Points allowed | 25.626th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+6.3 | Margin | −3.422nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.73 | Yards per play | 5.868th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.27 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9529th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.