Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/22, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing26 CAR, 255 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving6 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/36, 243 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 117 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:07Cooper Kupp 27 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–20
- Q42:44Saquon Barkley 72 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)37–14
- Q410:30Jake Elliott 26 Yd Field Goal30–14
- Q36:17Kenneth Gainwell 13 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)27–14
- Q310:51Demarcus Robinson 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–14
- Q314:49Saquon Barkley 70 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)20–7
- Q21:27A.J. Brown 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)13–7
- Q26:17Jake Elliott 31 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q11:02Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)3–7
- Q15:13Jake Elliott 21 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:02Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)PHI 3 – 7 LAR · LAR 35% → 55% +20LAR 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q21:27A.J. Brown 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 13 – 7 LAR · PHI 52% → 74% +22PHI 52% → 74%+22 pts
- Q314:49Saquon Barkley 70 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 20 – 7 LAR · PHI 75% → 90% +15PHI 75% → 90%+15 pts
- Q310:51Demarcus Robinson 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)PHI 20 – 14 LAR · LAR 9% → 24% +16LAR 9% → 24%+16 pts
- Q36:17Kenneth Gainwell 13 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 27 – 14 LAR · PHI 77% → 93% +16PHI 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -145 / LAR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- LAR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 25.0 – 22.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +7 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +74 Elo | PHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3225.9 | Points scored | 21.320th of 32 |
| 5th of 3217.9 | Points allowed | 23.922nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.0 | Margin | −2.621st of 32 |
| 9th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.4217th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6224th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.