Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/25, 290 YDS, 5 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS
- Rashod BatemanReceiving3 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD
Giants- Tim BoylePassing12/24, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 31 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving10 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:36Malik Nabers 23 Yd pass from Tim Boyle (Graham Gano Kick)35–14
- Q410:46Justice Hill 27 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)35–7
- Q34:01Devontez Walker 21 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)28–7
- Q20:32Rashod Bateman 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)21–7
- Q22:15Devin Singletary 2 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)14–7
- Q210:53Rashod Bateman 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)14–0
- Q13:18Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:18Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 NYG · BAL 89% → 96% +7BAL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q210:53Rashod Bateman 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 14 – 0 NYG · BAL 95% → 99% +4BAL 95% → 99%+4 pts
- Q22:15Devin Singletary 2 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)BAL 14 – 7 NYG · NYG 1% → 6% +4NYG 1% → 6%+4 pts
- Q20:32Rashod Bateman 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 21 – 7 NYG · BAL 94% → 99% +4BAL 94% → 99%+4 pts
- Q34:01Devontez Walker 21 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 28 – 7 NYG · BAL 99% → >99% +1BAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- BAL -16.5
- ML BAL -2000 / NYG +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -13.5
- BAL 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 87.5%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -1016
- NYG +1016 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 30.0 – 13.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1287 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | −4 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +338 Elo | BAL 87.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 86.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 91.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.5 | Points scored | 14.932nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.5 | Points allowed | 22.516th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −7.627th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.81 | Yards per play | 4.6531st of 32 |
| 16th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5621st of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 0–732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | — |
| Underdog | — | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.