Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing11/19, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing23 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing23/36, 237 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing19 CAR, 82 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:03Isaiah Likely 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)24–19
- Q41:03Jake Elliott 35 Yd Field Goal24–12
- Q47:56Saquon Barkley 25 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)21–12
- Q20:03Justin Tucker 50 Yd Field Goal14–12
- Q22:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–9
- Q28:04Dallas Goedert 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–9
- Q13:49Mark Andrews 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT Failed)0–9
- Q19:21Justin Tucker 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:49Mark Andrews 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT Failed)PHI 0 – 9 BAL · BAL 67% → 81% +13BAL 67% → 81%+13 pts
- Q28:04Dallas Goedert 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 9 BAL · PHI 18% → 35% +18PHI 18% → 35%+18 pts
- Q22:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 9 BAL · PHI 36% → 59% +24PHI 36% → 59%+24 pts
- Q20:03Justin Tucker 50 Yd Field GoalPHI 14 – 12 BAL · BAL 40% → 51% +11BAL 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q47:56Saquon Barkley 25 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 12 BAL · PHI 60% → 93% +33PHI 60% → 93%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3.5
- ML PHI +145 / BAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -3
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -154
- PHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 24.0 – 27.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1680 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +5 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +72 Elo | BAL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 60.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.9 | Points scored | 30.32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.1 | Points allowed | 24.525th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.8 | Margin | +5.89th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.89 | Yards per play | 6.971st of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.72 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4818th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.