Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing23/37, 344 YDS, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- Darnell MooneyReceiving6 REC, 142 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing22/28, 347 YDS, 5 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan AddisonReceiving8 REC, 133 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:38Aaron Jones 15 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)21–42
- Q48:23Jordan Addison 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)21–35
- Q412:59Jordan Addison 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)21–28
- Q30:39Bijan Robinson 13 Yd Rush (Bijan Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q33:25Justin Jefferson 52 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)13–21
- Q35:06Younghoe Koo 29 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q20:10Younghoe Koo 20 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q22:01Justin Jefferson 12 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–14
- Q10:37Jordan Addison 49 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–7
- Q18:58Tyler Allgeier 6 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:37Jordan Addison 49 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)ATL 7 – 7 MIN · MIN 48% → 67% +20MIN 48% → 67%+20 pts
- Q22:01Justin Jefferson 12 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)ATL 7 – 14 MIN · MIN 65% → 84% +19MIN 65% → 84%+19 pts
- Q33:25Justin Jefferson 52 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)ATL 13 – 21 MIN · MIN 66% → 88% +23MIN 66% → 88%+23 pts
- Q30:39Bijan Robinson 13 Yd Rush (Bijan Robinson Run for Two-Point Conversion)ATL 21 – 21 MIN · ATL 11% → 40% +29ATL 11% → 40%+29 pts
- Q412:59Jordan Addison 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)ATL 21 – 28 MIN · MIN 60% → 88% +29MIN 60% → 88%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML ATL +210 / MIN -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.8%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -231
- ATL +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.5 – 26.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1640 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +4 | ATL: Kirk Cousins · MIN: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +238 Elo | MIN 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 24.89th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 18.35th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.8 | Margin | +6.54th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.72 | Yards per play | 5.6412th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.49 | Yards allowed per play | 5.116th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 12th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.