Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing24/38, 241 YDS, 3 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing17 CAR, 88 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving8 REC, 72 YDS
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing14/22, 111 YDS, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing11 CAR, 44 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving6 REC, 40 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:22John Parker Romo 29 Yd Field Goal12–7
- Q47:14John Parker Romo 34 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q31:42John Parker Romo 33 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q13:44Mac Jones 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)3–7
- Q17:56John Parker Romo 45 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:56John Parker Romo 45 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 0 JAX · MIN 72% → 78% +6MIN 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q13:44Mac Jones 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)MIN 3 – 7 JAX · JAX 22% → 39% +17JAX 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q31:42John Parker Romo 33 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 7 JAX · MIN 44% → 58% +14MIN 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q47:14John Parker Romo 34 Yd Field GoalMIN 9 – 7 JAX · MIN 51% → 72% +20MIN 51% → 72%+20 pts
- Q44:22John Parker Romo 29 Yd Field GoalMIN 12 – 7 JAX · MIN 74% → 91% +17MIN 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML MIN -300 / JAX +250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 79.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -271
- JAX +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 25.0 – 17.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1605 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −16 | −94 | MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins · JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +240 Elo | MIN 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 73.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3226.1 | Points scored | 21.718th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 28.030th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.4 | Margin | −6.324th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.6114th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0232nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.