Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing16/27, 179 YDS, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing13 CAR, 48 YDS
- Josh DownsReceiving6 REC, 60 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing28/34, 290 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing21 CAR, 64 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 137 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:28Matt Gay 54 Yd Field Goal13–21
- Q42:05Josh Oliver 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)10–21
- Q412:41Matt Gay 42 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q32:49Jalen Nailor 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–14
- Q310:23Jordan Addison 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–7
- Q210:56Kenny Moore II 38 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:56Kenny Moore II 38 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 0 MIN · IND 34% → 55% +21IND 34% → 55%+21 pts
- Q310:23Jordan Addison 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)IND 7 – 7 MIN · MIN 36% → 63% +26MIN 36% → 63%+26 pts
- Q32:49Jalen Nailor 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)IND 7 – 14 MIN · MIN 61% → 86% +25MIN 61% → 86%+25 pts
- Q412:41Matt Gay 42 Yd Field GoalIND 10 – 14 MIN · IND 12% → 22% +10IND 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q42:05Josh Oliver 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)IND 10 – 21 MIN · MIN 93% → >99% +7MIN 93% → >99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML IND +215 / MIN -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4.5
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.0%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -224
- IND +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.5 – 26.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | −20 | IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · MIN: Sam Darnold, usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +107 Elo | MIN 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 26.96th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 19.69th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +7.35th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.51 | Yards per play | 5.7311th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.229th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.