Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing31/45, 260 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- James ConnerRushing17 CAR, 68 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving12 REC, 96 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing21/31, 235 YDS, 2 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing5 CAR, 22 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 99 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:13Aaron Jones 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)22–23
- Q43:20Chad Ryland 23 Yd Field Goal22–16
- Q411:08John Parker Romo 31 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q31:17Johnny Mundt 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)19–13
- Q34:37Marvin Harrison Jr. 15 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)19–6
- Q38:33Chad Ryland 40 Yd Field Goal12–6
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 24 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q21:12John Parker Romo 55 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q26:01Chad Ryland 31 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q14:42John Parker Romo 44 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q19:02Chad Ryland 32 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:37Marvin Harrison Jr. 15 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 19 – 6 MIN · ARI 68% → 89% +21ARI 68% → 89%+21 pts
- Q31:17Johnny Mundt 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)ARI 19 – 13 MIN · MIN 8% → 29% +21MIN 8% → 29%+21 pts
- Q411:08John Parker Romo 31 Yd Field GoalARI 19 – 16 MIN · MIN 23% → 38% +15MIN 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q43:20Chad Ryland 23 Yd Field GoalARI 22 – 16 MIN · ARI 77% → 94% +17ARI 77% → 94%+17 pts
- Q41:13Aaron Jones 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (John Parker Romo Kick)ARI 22 – 23 MIN · MIN <1% → 69% +68MIN <1% → 69%+68 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML ARI +150 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 73.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- ARI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 21.0 – 24.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +1 | ARI: Kyler Murray · MIN: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +177 Elo | MIN 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 71.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 24.99th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 17.95th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +7.04th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.95 | Yards per play | 5.6612th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.097th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.