New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing22/35, 151 YDS
- Breece HallRushing10 CAR, 52 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving5 REC, 41 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing22/24, 266 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey BensonRushing10 CAR, 62 YDS
- James ConnerReceiving5 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q34:13Kyler Murray 12 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)6–31
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 37 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q25:44Marvin Harrison Jr. 9 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)6–21
- Q211:37Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q12:54Kyler Murray 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)3–14
- Q17:48Spencer Shrader 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q112:58James Conner 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:58James Conner 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 ARI · ARI 47% → 64% +18ARI 47% → 64%+18 pts
- Q17:48Spencer Shrader 25 Yd Field GoalNYJ 3 – 7 ARI · NYJ 35% → 42% +8NYJ 35% → 42%+8 pts
- Q12:54Kyler Murray 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NYJ 3 – 14 ARI · ARI 58% → 76% +18ARI 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q211:37Spencer Shrader 45 Yd Field GoalNYJ 6 – 14 ARI · NYJ 22% → 30% +7NYJ 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q25:44Marvin Harrison Jr. 9 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)NYJ 6 – 21 ARI · ARI 72% → 88% +15ARI 72% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -1.5
- ML NYJ -130 / ARI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -2.5
- NYJ 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.7 pts
- NYJ: Elo 41.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 24.0 – 22.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +30 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 53.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 23.015th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 23.821st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.818th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.13 | Yards per play | 5.897th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.64 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6523rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.