Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing24/37, 285 YDS, 1 INT
- Trey BensonRushing4 CAR, 18 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving12 REC, 133 YDS
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing22/31, 254 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 41 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Jason Myers 50 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q410:08Chad Ryland 22 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q37:12Coby Bryant 69 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers PAT Failed)3–13
- Q21:14Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)3–7
- Q29:43Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:43Chad Ryland 35 Yd Field GoalARI 3 – 0 SEA · ARI 53% → 62% +9ARI 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q21:14Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)ARI 3 – 7 SEA · SEA 37% → 61% +24SEA 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q37:12Coby Bryant 69 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers PAT Failed)ARI 3 – 13 SEA · SEA 64% → 83% +20SEA 64% → 83%+20 pts
- Q410:08Chad Ryland 22 Yd Field GoalARI 6 – 13 SEA · ARI 7% → 15% +8ARI 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q41:56Jason Myers 50 Yd Field GoalARI 6 – 16 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +1SEA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -1.5
- ML ARI -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -0.5
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -118
- SEA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 24.0 – 22.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +33 | +5 | ARI: Kyler Murray · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3223.8 | Points scored | 23.015th of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 23.821st of 32 |
| 14th of 32+1.8 | Margin | −0.819th of 32 |
| 5th of 326.01 | Yards per play | 5.5814th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4817th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.